SSL September Predictions & Pre-Game Analysis

Once again, welcome to my pre-game analysis of the upcoming SSL finals on Sunday!

WARNING: MAY CONTAIN TRACES OF OPINION!


INSTA

Honzik1 vs lagout

It’s the classic situation with Honzik1 again. Technically, lagout is very well capable of beating Honzik1 but in a competitive environment you can never rule out the Czech allstar. In the end, it will really depend on both players’ daily form, especially for lagout since he can hit absurdly well sometimes but Honzik1 will hit hard no matter what if he’s given the chance.

Recent duel history: complex – ot – turbine – complex

Final bet: 2-1 for Honzik1

 

hades vs Frosty

This matchup will definitely be interesting, with two players evenly skilled at insta. In the end, Frosty will keep the upper hand though, considering that he gets the decisive map pick(s).

Recent duel history: hadesFrosty

Final bet: 2-1 for Frosty

 

Hypothetical final: Honzik1 vs Frosty

What I said about Frosty last time still holds true – he’s itching to prove himself on the competitive stage. Will it work this time? It remains to be seen. This would basically be a rematch of last month’s insta semifinal in which Frosty got damn close to overcoming the Czech powerhouse. If Frosty keeps his cool and delivers his A game he will have a shot at the title, but the odds are ever so slightly in favour of Honzik1, in my opinion.

Recent duel historyHonzik1 – Frosty

Final bet: 2-1 for Honzik1


FFA

swatllama vs Frosty

I guess the outcome of this is already cast in stone. Unless Frosty has put in loads of practice hours that I don’t know of, swatllama will emerge as the winner of this matchup.

Recent duel history: tumwalk – metl3 – elegy – metl3 – corruption

Final bet: 2-0 for swatllama

 

Honzik1 vs lagout

This will be their second encounter of the day. Unfortunately, I don’t know who gets to pick first, but I believe that map choices might turn the tide in favour of one or the other. Assuming Honzik1 gets to pick first, I have a hard time imagining lagout beating him on Honzik1’s map(s).

Recent duel history: Honzik1 –  lagout

Final bet: 2-0 for Honzik1

 

Hypothetical final: Honzik1 vs swatllama

I don’t think much has changed since their last encounter at SSL August, which is why I believe swatllama will win this one again.

Recent duel history: metl3 – metl3 – hades

Final bet: 2-1 for swatllama


EFFIC

raffael vs lagout

The clash of the w00p clanmates. They play each other a lot and usually raffael comes out on top. The winner of last month’s effic competition will make it into the final again this time.

Recent duel history: ot – turbine – academy –  mbt9 – memento

Final bet: 2-0 for raffael

 

Acuerta vs Frosty

Well, yea I’m in this match myself .. Anyway, considering that I’ve been away from competition for quite a while and don’t really have time to put in the practice hours I don’t see a happy ending for me here, especially with regard to how I can’t really handle high-ping opponents. At the same time, Frosty seems to be in shape lately so in the end I’ll have to bet against myself.

Recent duel history: turbine – academy – memento – ot – memento

Final bet: 2-1 for Frosty

 

Hypothetical final: raffael vs Frosty

As much as I would like to see the Canadian winning his first 1v1 title, I don’t think he can beat raffael with the map choice going against him.

Recent duel history: raffael – Frosty

Final bet: 2-1 for raffael


eCTF 3v3

As we’ve seen last time, it’s really hard to predict teamgames because you simply don’t know who’s going to play for the respective teams. The competitors for the title are Impressive Squad, The Red Butchers, w00p and The Rising Cubers. 

Assuming all teams play with their top lineup, I’d still rank the first three as evenly-matched and would estimate 50:50 odds. But even The Rising Cubers shouldn’t be ruled out at all – they have proven to have very homogenous players with great teamplay. Their defensive rifle-heavy style may come in handy on certain maps and could easily cause an upset against the other three top contenders.

Although the w00p lineup may look deadly, the clan has yet to live up to past glory, but with players like raffael and lagout this time’s as good as any to do so.

With the return of Honzik1, the Red Butchers are looking to do just the same. Their lineup of degrave, Honzik1 and possibly Partizan should give any team a chill.

As always, the daily form will play the decisive role. If someone put a gun to my head and forced me to make a prediction though, I’d say w00p comes out on top this time!


What do you think? Share your own bets in the comment section!

 

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4 Comments

  1. swatllama

    I always love these posts.

    Before I go on, I want to remind participants of all mode that THERE IS A MAP TRACKER, AND IF YOU PICK *EMPHASIS ON PICK* DURING THE SEMIFINALS, YOU CANNOT PICK *EMPHASIS ON PICK* IT DURING THE FINALS.

    I don’t know how I’ll fare in FFA. I’ve been practicing a lot, probably more than anyone else, but honestly I was still even nervous about losing in my qualifier game against Rexus. I’m not sure that I can beat Frosty by a very big margin in a no-pressure practice match. The links you gave are a month old now. In a high pressure match, which Frosty seems to be quite used to from his real-life competitive history, things are always different. Considering that I have the map pick advantage, I could see myself going at least 2-1 against Frosty. If he had the pick advantage, I’d say it’s a tossup since there’s only one map I’m especially weak on.

    I disagree that Honzik will beat out lagout. Even though Honzik has the map pick advantage over lagout, the map pool in its current state doesn’t reflect Sauer’s history. We only have threepre-collect maps in there: hades, metl3 and metl4.
    Both players are quite strong on hades, but I think lagout has an advantage there, based on my past games against both players on hades.
    Honzik definitely has the advantage on metl3 – that’s his map. But will he want to pick it against Lagout? He won’t be able to pick it against Frosty or me in the finals if he does.
    From there on, I feel lagout has the advantage. I know that Honzik isn’t especially comfortable on collect & custom maps, whereas Lagout has practiced them some.

    Hypothetical FFA Final: swatllama vs lagout
    I’m pretty certain that I am stronger than lagout on most of the maps, and having the map pick advantage will certainly help me. I can think of one map where it’s very likely he’ll destroy me, and another where it’d be a tossup. However, since I have the pick advantage, I can pick ones I know I’m especially strong on.
    I could see a 2-1 for me being just as likely as a 2-0.

    Hypothetical FFA Final #2: Frosty vs lagout
    I don’t want to rule out Frosty making it to the finals over me. If he does make it to the finals, I would have to give it to him. He’s also seeded higher than lagout, has one of the best overall aims in Sauer, and is strong on most of the maps. He’s especially strong on a few of the maps in the pool – ones lagout, I think, is weaker on. As long as he doesn’t waste his best map on his pick against me, I can see a 2-0 for Frosty.

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  2. notas

    Fun fact: honzik1 has the most collected duel titles in sauer history, with something like 15. Sheer persistence.

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  3. Agalloch

    great swat you also gave us your predctions.

    As you said and i repeat, i love this. Very gj acu with bringing this idea.

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