SSL August Predictions & Pre-Game Analysis by Acuerta

Welcome to my pre-game analysis of the upcoming SSL Finals. WARNING: MAY CONTAIN TRACES OF OPINION! Feel free to share your own estimation in the comments!


INSTA

Frosty vs Honzik1

Definitely an interesting matchup. Frosty has yet to live up to his own expectations in tournaments. Historically speaking, Honzik1 is a force to be reckoned with, especially in instagib, but Frosty should be on a par with him skill-wise. The decisive factor that might very well turn the tide in Honzik1’s favour though could be his vast tournament experience.

 

neon vs Fear

Can a person be up-and-coming if he has been playing the game for like 5 years already? If so, then neon is definitely and up-and-comer, at least in the effic duel scene. There he took out Honzik1 in an enthralling set of 3 maps, which proves his proficiency. But how will he fare with Fear, one of the most experienced insta players in the game? I think this is _the_ fifty-fifty matchup of the tournament and I dare not make a prediction, but if I had to I’d say neon wins this one, just because he’s been way more active lately than Fear.

 

Hypothetical final: Honzik1 vs neon

While I think that neon normally has superior aim, he will certainly have difficulties staying calm in such a prestigious final, especially considering Honzik1’s machiavellian cunning and tournament experience. My guess is 2-1 Honzik1.


EFFIC

raffael vs Lokio

I simply can’t imagine a scenario in which Lokio manages to pull off a set victory against raffael. Especially not in light of some of his recent duel results (1 2). It looks like Lokio’s main focus has been ffa lately and raffael is just in such a dominant shape at the moment (as seen in the previous SSL final vs neon) that I’ll have to go with a clear 2-0 victory for raffael here.

 

wtf?! vs neon

wtf?! might cause an upset on his map choice but neon’s picks will most likely go badly for him. There aren’t many people right now who can compete with neon on open maps and I don’t see wtf?! being one of them.

 

Hypothetical final: raffael vs neon

Last time, neon’s ambitions got shot down pretty convincingly by raffael. Maybe stagefright? Who knows, but I’m fairly positive that this time it’ll be a more even fight between these two. Outcome incalculable but I think raffael has the ever so diminutive edge over neon. My final bet: 2-1 in favour of raffael.


FFA

swatllama vs Honzik1

Not unthinkable for either one to beat the other. Since it’s ffa, a lot of it will come down to tight fifty-fifty situations and fortune. swatllama is probably well-versed in all maps in the pool, whereas Honzik1 has a certain set of maps that he has been playing for 10 years. 2-1 for swatllama since he gets the first pick.

 

Lokio vs raffael

FFA rematch of the effic semifinal between those two. This time Lokio keeps the upper hand. Reason: He actually plays ffa. And not even bad (or so I’ve heard it said).  :D

 

Hypothetical final: swatllama vs Lokio

I think they’ve been playing each other a lot lately and probably know their styles really well. I’m sure most people would bet on swatllama here but it’s entirely within the realm of possibility that Lokio causes an upset and emerges victorious. My estimation: 2-0 in favour of swatllama.


INSTACTF

vaQ’ vs RB

Tough one. RB has a lot of cunning going for them. vaQ is not really into iCTF, Fear aside. Then again, Fear Acuerta Frosty are a battle-tried team with a recent history of success, but Honzik1 degrave +third is also an equipo you don’t mess with. I’m guessing this will be a real nail-biter that only a team with nerves of steel (and no teammate blaming/raging on mumble) can win. Due to the fact that I’m in this game myself I won’t give an estimation here. That’s up to you!

 

.rC| vs DM

Pretty difficult to predict this one since both teams have had very variable teams in the past and the perfect line-up matters a lot. Anyway, the outcome is totally up in the air here in my opinion.

 

Hypothetical final: ?

While I won’t be as bold as to claim to know who’s going to make it to the final in iCTF, I do think that the upper matchup seems slightly superior. My money is on whoever wins between vaQ and RB.


Qualifier results

Info regarding finals

 

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12 Comments

  1. swatllama

    I don’t know how Frosty’s instagib form is, but I think if he practices enough this week, he can definitely take on Honzik in the finals. I’d predict a Frosty vs Neon for the final, with Frosty winning it. Frosty’s the only guy I can remember beating Achille in a matchup :D.

    For efficiency, I think your prediction and analysis is spot on, Acuerta. I’d have loved to see hades face neon in the semifinals, and I think that’d give a Raffael – hades final, which I’d say 2-1 Raffael. Maybe hades should go to bed at a decent hour =).

    Honzik and I each only have one really weak map in the pool (at least, I only know of his one weak map), and I think both of us will make those our picks. If it goes to a third map, I know what it’ll be – and it’ll be one we’re both quite strong on. I’d rather have three really good games that involve me losing than two really good ones and a mediocre one that let me go to the finals just because I got to pick first.
    I do think the final will be swatllama vs Lokio, and if it’s that, I would predict 2-1 for me. I know what my pick will be, what his pick will be, and if there’s a third map, again, it’ll be a map we’re both very strong on.
    If the final ends up being Honzik1 vs Lokio, I’ll call 2-1 Lokio. He knows what map Honzik is weak on, and Lokio’s pretty decent on almost all the maps. With him having the map pick, he will get that little advantage over Honzik. It doesn’t help Honzik that he doesn’t play with Lokio enough to know which maps Lokio struggles on.

    I’ll go out on a limb and say that vaQ’ will win their semifinal game. I don’t think RB will have extremely good teamwork with their new addition, and Saper hasn’t been in especially strong form for a while now.
    ,rC| vs DM is a toughie. If Skillz really goes off during those matches, I could see him clutching it for DM. I think it’ll really depend a lot on rC’s lineup.

    Nice prediction and analysis, Acuerta! I hope you do more of these for SSL’s future tourneys =).

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  2. Agalloch

    I first must say that i am glad, that noone else touched of making this kind of analysis, then Acuerta which i recognize as one of the most skilled (overall) and one of the privileged persons to give us his point of view.

    For me is in INSTA winner may be Fear or neon. I cant say which one win it but as a mate of neon i hope he will win it.

    Effic:
    Raffael vs neon in Final where neon takes what he deserves this time. Raffael is very good and very smart but neon just was just under pressure from final in his first final last effic. Now he win it.

    ffa. Swatllelama. No discuss.

    Ictf: vaQ. Also no discuss.

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  3. Lokio

    insta:

    frosty v honzik – frosty
    I don’t know frosty’s insta shape at the moment, but I’ve seen him do crazy things in insta so my money’s on him assuming he isn’t ice cold.

    fear v neon – gonna be the first one to give it to fear (though I don’t know either of them too well in insta)
    I don’t know about neon’s insta, he can definitely be quite strong but I’ve seen some weaker results from him. Should be a good one to watch no matter what though.

    frosty v fear – F R O S T Y
    mostly because I’m a frosty fanboy, like most of my insta picks it isnt based on a whole lot of knowledge :D

    effic:

    raffael v lokio – raffael
    i don’t play effic enough to compete with the monster that is raffael :D i think i can keep the games close but i have little hope of winning. to be honest I didnt even think I would be in the semis but let’s see what happens :’)

    neon v wtf?! – neon
    one thing I know about neon – dude’s great at effic. wtf?! is strong too but I don’t think he plays enough to put up wins against neon.

    raffael v neon – raffael
    raffael’s aim and gameplay is ridiculously strong, I think it’ll probably go to 3 maps but I still have to give it to him

    FFA(!!!)

    swatllama v honzik1 – swatllama
    don’t get me wrong, honzik is an opponent to be feared in ffa, but I think the pool favors swat’s playstyle and swat has been putting in a good amount of practice to add on to his already very strong ffa skills. I can see swat taking this 2-0, but there’s a fair chance it’ll go 2-1.

    raffael v lokio – me (hopefully)
    i don’t see raffael focusing on ffa that much and I’ve historically been able to handle strong aim players pretty well in ffa so i’ll give it to me (fingers crossed :D). there’s a solid chance that it’ll go to 3 maps though as raffael’s aim and experience in teamplay and classic ctf definitely make him a tough opponent.

    swatllama v lokio – swatllama
    this is a series that could definitely go either way. there are a lot of maps that swat and i go back and forth on. depending how we’re both doing I could see him taking it 2-0 in convincing games at worst and me stealing it away 2-1 at best. overall though i’d have to give it to him, he has experience over me and, as my main practice partner, probably knows my playstyle better than I do :D. I think there are a few things I can do to swing this one in my favor, but we’ll have to wait and see if it happens first.

    ictf
    RB v vaQ – vaQ
    vaQ has a lot of experience, great teamplay, and a bunch of strong fraggers. hard not to see them winning this for me. i’d call a 2-0.

    DM v rC – DM
    maybe some more wishful thinking but I think DM will have a solid chance. Skillz and I have both been quite strong in ictf lately and with a healthy Zoocata in our lineup this week I think this is the strongest and most experienced team we can put out, while I’m pretty sure rexus will be missing for rC. remember, last ssl we took a map off of them in the finals while they had rexus and I think our communication, skill, and teamwork has only improved since then. i’d say 2-1 us.

    vaQ v DM – ???
    I think vaQ is definitely going to be the favorite for most, especially with their expected team of fear, frosty, and acuerta (correct me if i’m wrong on this). we’ve been able to put up strong results against strong teams before though, I really hope this ends up being the final because I feel we could definitely give vaQ a run for their money (and hopefully show them we didn’t just win because of the 2v3 last time :D)

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  4. vonquiche

    insta – honzik

    effic – art (why is everyone calling him raffael now)

    ffa – swatllama

    ictf – vaQ

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      1. vonquiche

        this was meant to be a reply to the OP and not as a compliment to myself, kk

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  5. raffael

    insta – I mostly agree with Acuerta’s opinion here, but I hope neon will take the title, even tho it can be any of the semifinalists. :D
    effic – a bit subjective, but it’s gonna be…raffael! I don’t see any of them able to overtake me, no disrespect :> if wtf!? played sauer more he would definitely be the one to worry (same goes about his insta/ffa).
    ffa – I hope swatllama takes it. If I ever played/trained this great mode I would woop his bloody llama ass, just because I’m such a great tactician and he is not!
    ictf – vaQ fo sho.

    Very nice post and good idea with these predictions, I hope everyone appreciates this and respects your opinion. As Agalloch said, it’s nice to see analysis from one of the best overall players sauer ever had. Keep it up!

    SSL chiefs: PLEASE give us CTF or at least eCTF next time! Also, great job on hosting 3 duel modes + 1 xCTF mode, props to you!

    ggs all

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  6. Fear

    Insta: Frosty just because he’s a lagger and im not even sure if i can compete. I will try though!
    Effic: raffael, just because hes way too good an the small and nonopen maps. My hint for his opponents, pick something more open, there you will at least have a chance:P
    FFA: Swattlelama or Lokio
    Ictf: Sadly i won’t be able to play, because i have to work. I’m sure we can also do it with my backup+ Acuerta and Frosty. Should be still a good team:). So to clarfiy my predicition for Ictf –> vaQ’ !

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